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By Dr Kiplege Zochin
It is now a fact that Ruto’s current political strategy is a waste of time, and is increasingly being viewed in bad light by his community. I refer to his so-called alliance with Uhuru and the "prayer" and "peace" rallies the two have been holding, or plan to hold, around the country.
Unpalatable truth
What I’m about to say will rankle many feathers, but it is the truth: it will take more than a miracle for the Kalenjin community to support Uhuru or anybody from the Mt Kenya region in the coming General Election. This is so for a number of reasons. First, they will view it as unfair to support a Central Kenya candidate for State House given that President Kibaki has already been in power for two consecutive terms (10 years), a lifetime in politics. Secondly, they have little faith in Uhuru Kenyatta to implement the new Constitution, both in letter and spirit.
This is arguably supported by the perception that Uhuru, when he held the reigns of Treasury was not in favour of full devolution of resources to the Counties. There is yet another more contentious reason that many prefer to sweep under the carpet and that is land. In the Rift Valley, land ownership remains contentious as many regard it as a historical injustice that the community lost much of its land in the period immediately after Independence from Britain.
In the eyes of many a Kalenjin, the Truth and Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) was seen as the best hope of settling this matter, but the manner in which the commission’s chair, Mr Bethwell Kiplagat was handled was regarded as a conspiracy to keep the truth from coming out.
Collective will
The Kalenjin turn up to watch Ruto’s rallies with Uhuru out of loyalty to the former, but are amused by his inability to gauge the community’s mood and conscience. Sadly, Ruto has never been able to influence the way the Kalenjin voted in the past — including the 2005 referendum on the Constitution and in 2007. This trend continued even when he headed the "NO" campaign against the current Constitution which was mooted by the clergy.
In fact, in the 2007 election campaign the community compelled Ruto to support Mr Raila Odinga’s candidature. He was reluctant, but succumbed to pressure. If his way had prevailed then, he would have supported Mr Kalonzo Musyoka. In the coming General Election, Ruto will have no choice but to follow the community’s collective will.
Smart guy
He is smart enough to know the political consequences of doing the opposite; he is a smart guy!
Why then is Ruto portraying himself as working sincerely with Uhuru Kenyatta? What are his interests and are they aligned with those of the Kalenjin? My crystal ball tells me that Ruto’s agenda is more self-serving than it appears, since he is a seasoned political entrepreneur going back to his days at the Youth for Kanu in the 1990s.
True believers
My biggest fear is that these joint rallies may heighten ethnic animosity and foment social suspicion in an election year. I believe Uhuru and Ruto will do well to heed lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi’s advice and distinguish between true believers and opportunists, and put their families first.
Ruto should assemble elders to help him digest the consequences of the ICC ruling, and discuss extensively with his lawyers and other legal experts as he plots his political map. He also needs to dialogue with professionals and academicians on the right discourse.
My fear is that the round of "prayer" and "peace" rallies and the abuses hurled in those forums may lead to politics of hatred and witch-hunting. God forbid!
The writer is a lecturer, consultant and former CEO of the EMO Community Development Society.
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